In this study we present a comprehensive framework for evaluating the reliability of ship hull girders, focusing on the impacts of accidental damage and corrosion due to aging. It employs a surrogate model using Polynomial Chaos Expansion to assess ultimate strength, integrating both still-water and wave-induced bending loads. Key factors such as vessel age, operational region, loading conditions, and damage scenarios are analyzed, revealing their significant effects on hull failure probability. The findings underscore the importance of these variables and suggest that the framework could enhance risk-based ship design practices.
Krzysztof Woloszyk, Jakub Montewka, Floris Goerlandt, Bruno Sudret, Framework for the assessment of ship hull girder reliability and related sensitivity analysis considering accidental damage and ageing, Marine Structures, Volume 107, 2026, 103986, ISSN 0951-8339, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marstruc.2025.103986.